BIG News From the Drydocks

[Das Boot]

Bob is correct. It’s not easy to make money in this hobby. Just ask Dave Merriman, Skip Assay, if he were alive, 32nd Parallel, Matt Thor, etc, etc, etc.

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

They've made a few breakthroughs that pushed the tech forward by decades on where they thought they'd originally be at this stage. The AI algorithms have until now been run on very large computers accessed via cloud computing, but they're being integrated into the chips that go in smartphones AR/VR glasses/goggles and many other devices. Trying to stop it is like trying to push back the tide with a broom.

Once Musk gets his clone army sorted, the big fella will be coming round asking for your clothes, your boots and the keys to your motorcycle.

... and won't even have time to snub out my cigar on his tit. Damn. Life is so unfair!

Colossus-Guardian, call your office.

David
Remembering when SkyNet was a fiction

[Subculture]

They've made a few breakthroughs that pushed the tech forward by decades on where they thought they'd originally be at this stage. The AI algorithms have until now been run on very large computers accessed via cloud computing, but they're being integrated into the chips that go in smartphones AR/VR glasses/goggles and many other devices. Trying to stop it is like trying to push back the tide with a broom.

Once Musk gets his clone army sorted, the big fella will be coming round asking for your clothes, your boots and the keys to your motorcycle.

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

You may have noticed that the dig was aimed at Shapeways! Maybe you were only part way through the coffee? Some of you guys are way savvy at the 3D stuff, but it's still way hard to find things like fittings in 1:48 or 1:72 that may be actually usable, if even offered. For skimmers, too! I have several projects stalled for that reason. Not harping at you in any way, shape or form. I am only expressing my personal experience. In any case, I will still be a customer when and where our universes converge!

God damn, Bill. We're too old to wait for the Krell Machines to grant us our every wish (being very careful to mind what we wish for once they come online... hello, AI). Here's a thought: Scratch-build what you need, you crusty old fart... I dare ya!

David
Luddite

[wlambing]

You may have noticed that the dig was aimed at Shapeways! Maybe you were only part way through the coffee? Some of you guys are way savvy at the 3D stuff, but it's still way hard to find things like fittings in 1:48 or 1:72 that may be actually usable, if even offered. For skimmers, too! I have several projects stalled for that reason. Not harping at you in any way, shape or form. I am only expressing my personal experience. In any case, I will still be a customer when and where our universes converge!

[Subculture]

I believe that Engel has their moulding carried out in Morocco, or that was the case. Prior to that I believe it used to be done in Malta, but perhaps that got a bit expensive, or they just lost their workforce on that island.

It's very difficult to produce anything hand built for sale unless the labour rates are low or the customer is prepared to pay a high premium. Consumers have gotten used to cheap mass-produced items and Chinese labour rates.

Having said all that, in terms of quality and choice in this hobby I've never known it so good. Certainly, products and companies come and go, but these days there isn't much out of reach, especially with additive manufacturing technologies.

[RCSubGuy]

Bob,

I also know that I don't know all the ins-and-outs of running a small business in today's world (or at all!) But we need to have some selection available from people such as yourself that can produce a good looking and enduring product. A selection of well-known vessels and a smattering of some one-offs, perhaps?

Sure! We'll just knock that out in our spare time. For the sake of transparency, let's talk numbers, and I apologize in advance if this is coming off sarcastically. I'ts 5am here and I'm only halfway through my first cup of coffee:

• Mastering a new boat to production standards? Let's get really (really) optimistic and say it can be done in about three weeks of solid 8 hours days. That's 120 hours
• Rubber, resin, metal for tooling? Let's say $100 for a smallish boat
• Time for tooling? 10 hours
• Materials for a pull? Not much! Yay! Let's say $20 (again, for a small hull)
• Time for a pull? 3 hours front to back

So... to get the molds that we just made, we're talking 130 hours of work. Let's say I charge out the shop at a pittance of $40/hour (yep, I've got expenses to cover for the shop, employees, materials, marketing, etc). That gives us a labor cost of $5,200. Materials add up to another $100, so let's say $5300 in round numbers.

Now, you say, you can start making MONEY, right!!! Yeah, baby! Let's go to town. So... I want my investment back in, let's say... a year. Unfortunately, I've got bad news. In our baby hobby, a solid seller might sell 10 hulls a year (and that's pushing it). So... $5200 divided by 10 is $520 per kit in amortization costs. Add another $140 per hull for labor and materials and we're at a hull cost of $660. Now, in order to survive and grow, I need profit. Let's be reasonable and shoot for a 30% margin. Now we're looking at a sale price of $858. Niiiice!

Alrighty, people. Line up to send your deposits! Let's make this new boat happen!

Unreasonable, you say? A year!? That's ridiculous! Don't be so greedy! Okay... let's say 2 years just to break even. Kit price works out to $520. That's better, you say! I would pay that. Thing is, now that the first batch of kits is out the door, demand is down. Everyone who wanted one of these new boats got one already. Now we're over the initial demand and sales are dropping annually.

Let me ask you a question.. are you willing to invest $5,300 and wait two years just to get it back again?

Another thing to think about is that there is only a small number of folks that 3D print stuff and what they do make has their own problems (think striations, unsightly faceting, that stuff). Exorbitant cost, too! (Take that Shapeways!!!! You can keep your bad packaging, bent parts and shoddy materials that won't take standard paints, too!!!!)

BZZZZZTTT! Nope. Wrong. Thanks for playing. Hate to break it to you, but 3D file sales outpace fiberglass boats at least three to one right now, and that gap is only increasing.

Exhorbitant cost? Huh? You can get a decent printer now for under $300 and a roll of filament for $30 (for the good stuff). If you build two boats in a year with that, your cash investment for the hull is $180/boat. Yes, the technology is not there yet, but it's getting better daily. New printers, cheaper printers, new filaments, new resins, better resolutions. As Dave would say, "the day of the robots is nigh!!"

The suppliers of hulls, as was mentioned earlier, is mostly garage producers with no overhead and a passion for subs. If it is a larger company like, say, Engel, then subs are just a tiny facet of their business, piggybacking off of their main product lines.

[Subculture]

I'd say it's about the same, but you need to remember the US is a country the size of Europe with less than half the population. When you see events in Germany etc. They're not just German modellers, they're modellers from Holland, Belgium, Austria, Czech Republic etc. etc.

In the US if someone organises an event in say New Hampshire, and you're holed up in California it's a bit of a hike isn't it? Like me trotting off from England to an event in Greece. Therefore I think in general you tend to get pockets of modellers in various regions of the US, and it's pot luck if you get an active region.

I can't speak for some of the companies you mention, but in the case of OTW and R&R, they're effectively being run by pensioners. Ron Perrott is in his seventies, Bob Dimmack is in his eighties.

[TuptubBuilder]

Why, IMO, is this hobby more popular in Europe and how are outfits like R&R Engineering, OTW, Engel, Maximus Modellbau, Oto’s Rcsubs and Jocab’s Rcshipyards doing businesswise?

[Subculture]

Here in the UK, the commercial side of the hobby is supplied almost exclusively by people that are doing it as an odd job, or side hustle as I've heard it called in the US. Where it's more fulltime, it's usually tacked onto a business supplying a part of the hobby that's a little less niche.

This side of the hobby was never very large, and it never will be. Making things go underneath the water is a very odd thing to do in most people's eyes, even to other modelmakers. A major issue is the seniority of the participants in the hobby, as Dave points out. It's the same deal here in the UK, and I think it's the same story in mainland Europe too. This isn't exclusive to sub modelling though.

I'm afraid these days there are many more ways to entertain ourselves than there used to be, so much distraction, and it'll only get worse with the tech coming down the line (Apple Vision, hello?), and really that's your competition.

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

Bob,
I know that you have to keep your business in a sustainable manner and would beseech you to maybe go that route of offering the unassembled kits that you mentioned. We've been without some of the old "standards" for years, now. Stuff like Marlin, Sturgeon, Trafalgar, etc., all of which have been on your "Coming Soon" list for quite some time. I'm tired of looking at Permits, that were never front-line units in real life anyway! Obsolete when they hit the water! Small class, small capabilities, and they sucked to work on!! My Sturgeon has been retired for 10+ years, but I'm seriously thinking of refurbishment to counter the Permits that show up at events. Sturgeons stemmed the Red Tide!!
I also know that I don't know all the ins-and-outs of running a small business in today's world (or at all!) But we need to have some selection available from people such as yourself that can produce a good looking and enduring product. A selection of well-known vessels and a smattering of some one-offs, perhaps?

Another thing to think about is that there is only a small number of folks that 3D print stuff and what they do make has their own problems (think striations, unsightly faceting, that stuff). Exorbitant cost, too! (Take that Shapeways!!!! You can keep your bad packaging, bent parts and shoddy materials that won't take standard paints, too!!!!)

Anyway, we need you and we need new stuff too! (Or modernized versions of the old stuff!)

Take care, stay cool,

Bill

Fair observations, Bill. But what drives the existence of a business is a client base substantial enough to support said business. The American r/c submarine base is small and aged. And with no new blood coming into the hobby an assured decline in the base over time is inevitable. No kids, no future.

Bob's learned the hard way you can't trust American outside vendors for production work -- you either do the work yourself, in-house, or you lose your shirt to shoddy work, late delivers, damaged tooling, or outright theft of your tooling. The American r/c submarine base is too small to support a business with a meaningful employee list; shop space rental and associated business expenses; and heavy reliance on outside vendors.

To produce and carry the items you want retained and added means talented, long-term employment of people who won't turn around next week and become your competitor (No! I'm not referring to Jason -- he and Bob are joined at the hip with this new relationship). Salaries are a sizable fraction of the business expenses. The base does not warrant that expense.

Bob's re-worked business model is his best option to stay in the game, in my informed opinion.

A contributing factor for this down-sizing of the Nautilus Drydocks. Bob's in this business for the wrong reason: He Loves This Hobby; he's unable to be dispassionate about this Craft as applied to a business -- I'll put it this way: The reason Surgeons don't get wrist deep into the cracked chest of a loved one is that if you can't be professionally dispassionate about what you do, you'll make the wrong moves, again and again.

Successful businesses are run by use of the brain. Not the heart!

Bob has recently fully engaged the brain. We'll take what we can from his continued service to the hobby.

David

[Subculture]

He has one pair of hands and only so much time and energy to devote to this, and rather too much is being expected of one person, IMO.

All lay load on a willing horse.

[wlambing]

Bob,
I know that you have to keep your business in a sustainable manner and would beseech you to maybe go that route of offering the unassembled kits that you mentioned. We've been without some of the old "standards" for years, now. Stuff like Marlin, Sturgeon, Trafalgar, etc., all of which have been on your "Coming Soon" list for quite some time. I'm tired of looking at Permits, that were never front-line units in real life anyway! Obsolete when they hit the water! Small class, small capabilities, and they sucked to work on!! My Sturgeon has been retired for 10+ years, but I'm seriously thinking of refurbishment to counter the Permits that show up at events. Sturgeons stemmed the Red Tide!!
I also know that I don't know all the ins-and-outs of running a small business in today's world (or at all!) But we need to have some selection available from people such as yourself that can produce a good looking and enduring product. A selection of well-known vessels and a smattering of some one-offs, perhaps?

Another thing to think about is that there is only a small number of folks that 3D print stuff and what they do make has their own problems (think striations, unsightly faceting, that stuff). Exorbitant cost, too! (Take that Shapeways!!!! You can keep your bad packaging, bent parts and shoddy materials that won't take standard paints, too!!!!)

Anyway, we need you and we need new stuff too! (Or modernized versions of the old stuff!)

Take care, stay cool,

Bill

[Subculture]

What became of the blue water boat concept, insufficient interest?

[RCSubGuy]

Valid, but not realistic.

No one in their right mind, in today's world, is going to be interested in paying $1000 for a kit that will be delivered "some time in the future when the vendor get 10 orders".

They want it now. If I go one day over an estimated delivery date, I get emails from grumpy customers. Would be different if this was a high margin product, but I intentionally cut my profits to make an accessible kit for the market.

Still thinking... Perhaps doing away with the assembled and RTR versions and only offering the unassembled kits would be the way to go...