The Nightmare Scenario: A U.S.-China War

[herrmill]

Here's something to chew on if you have a spare 30 minutes to kill.

Am quite certain that Tom Clancy won't be loosing any sleep over this what-of essay that appeared last month in The Naval Diplomat but it doesn't give some ideas on what we don't want to see happen in our lifetimes. As is normally the case, the comments tend to be more enlightening than the feature itself but the author, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College does know his stuff.

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2012/09/19/the-nightmare-scanerio-a-u-s-china-war

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2012/09/20/the-nightmare-scenario-a-u-s-china-war-part-ii

http://thediplomat.com/the-naval-diplomat/2012/09/23/the-nightmare-scenario-a-u-s-china-war-part-iii

More articles related to China & Asian naval developments can be found on their home page.

[vital.spark]

This was in today's South China Morning Post:

China's relentless push to reduce US influence in the Asia-Pacific region

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1187714/chinas-relentless-push-reduce-us-influence-asia-pacific

[herrmill]

China's Secret Weapon Revealed.

And its not going to let up anytime soon with Xi Jinping now in control.

That said, the world saw a sneak preview of their latest secret weapon just a few days ago in Shanghai. Imagine seeing this threat streaming out of the Huangpu into East China Sea! BLUSHER

http://shanghaiist.com/2013/03/12/more_pig_carcasses_expected_to_be_found_in_shanghai_huangpu_river.php

[herrmill]

Just coming online.

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/china-commissions-next-generation-stealth-frigate_834910.html

Pig counts up to 6,000 & rising!

[herrmill]

Xi Jinping's "I Have A China Dream" Speech

This certainly doesn't bode well for "harmonious" relations with the West.

Soon after taking over as Communist Party and military chief, Xi Jinping launched a series of speeches referring to "The China Dream."

It was music to the ears of Col. Liu Mingfu of the People's Liberation Army.

Three years ago, the former professor at its National Defense University wrote a book of the same name, arguing that China should aim to surpass the U.S. as the world's top military power and predicting a marathon contest for global dominion. The book flew off the shelves but was pulled over concerns it could damage relations with the U.S., according to people familiar with its publication.

The day after Mr. Xi's first "China Dream" speech, however, Col. Liu's publisher called to say he had gotten approval to launch a new edition. Now, it is on display in the "recommended books" section of a state-run bookstore.

"I don't know if he read the book, but he has sent a strong message," Col. Liu said in an interview at his apartment here, leaping to his feet with excitement to leaf through letters of support. "He could have grasped the economy, or some social issues, but instead he grasped the military."

..All this leads many diplomats, party insiders and analysts to believe Mr. Xi is casting himself as a strong military leader at home and embracing a more hawkish worldview long outlined by generals who think the U.S. is in decline and China will become the dominant military power in Asia by midcentury.

In doing so, they say, Mr. Xi is setting the stage for a prolonged period of tension between China and its neighbors, as well as for a potentially dangerous tussle for influence with a U.S. that is intent on reasserting its role as the dominant Pacific power.

He has even set a precise date for the fulfillment of his dream: 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Communist takeover of China.

Read the entire article at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...40546346.html?

[Slats]

The circuit breaker in all this is the moronic on-goings of North Korea. Even the Chinese have recently quit defending their latest actions.

North Korea's instability is of greater concern to any tensions in the Taiwanese Straits / South China sea. The only purpose North Korea poses as a nation is war. Their whole economy (totally unsustainable) revolves around military expansion, technology and procurement of Nuclear weapons, at the opportunity cost of starving most of their population. A state's fundamental duty is to protect its own people. The North Koreans have little regard for their own people, who are mere pawns for fodder.

Just as I think that within the realms of probability that we aren't the only form of life in the universe, I think a future Nuclear exchange (not total - but limited) is unfortunately almost an inevitable certainty. North Korea is not just a totalitarian state, its the only whole nation on earth to be fundamentally cult controlled. I remember reading in the Sydney Morning Herald a few months back, that when Kim Jong-il died, one of his senior Generals was apparently not upset enough in public. Kim Jong-un (the successor), had the General executed by having him staked to the ground where a mortar had been zero'd in.

North Korea is very dangerous for a number of reasons.
First they take the notion of "saving face" to astronomical levels
Second their entire population is brainwashed "cult style"
Third they have nuclear weapons
Fourth they have a serious chip on their shoulder.
Fifth they actively threaten the region not only with words or provocative tests, but they occasionally sink ships and open up artillery on South Korean territories

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10129703

The nuclear danger may not be delivered by a North Korean missile, but given their sole preoccupation with threatening the region and the World per se, they could perhaps be the source of such a weapon to another failed state or terrorist group. No doubt our Govt's understand this threat and are working to neutralise it.

[Albion]

Sixth - They have to work harder and harder each year to keep their population blind to the fact they are so far behind their neighbours.

I dont know why Afghanistan and Iraq were first, these guys have always been the biggest nuts around

[Slats]

Sixth - They have to work harder and harder each year to keep their population blind to the fact they are so far behind their neighbours.

I dont know why Afghanistan and Iraq were first, these guys have always been the biggest nuts around

Exactly!

I guess the big difference, however is China has up until now been well and truly in their corner.

J

[vital.spark]

Don't fool yourself John, china is still well and truly in their corner.

[Subculture]

I dont know why Afghanistan and Iraq were first, these guys have always been the biggest nuts around

No oil in North Korea, is there?

[herrmill]

I dont know why Afghanistan and Iraq were first, these guys have always been the biggest nuts around

Ummm.... I would guess its because they had 1) no Taliban or 2) OIL in them thar hills!

[herrmill]

No oil in North Korea, is there?

The only oil DPRK has comes from China unless you want to consider what's in their kitchens &/or hair.

[Albion]

Exactly!

I guess the big difference, however is China has up until now been well and truly in their corner.

J

Hermill is much better placed than I on this subject, but China does not want a unified Korea , it keeps the region nicely destabilised and stops Korea having the combination of technology and a large low cost workforce, to pit against china. Even tho China may appear to back down , they aren't going to.

[Kazzer]

My impression of China was the The People have enough to worry about and are not the slightest bit interested in causing The United States (or anyone else) any problems.

So, we're back to the same old problem, give a few people some power, strap a gun on their hip and somehow, they think they can rule the world.

I look forward to the day we remove these people, preferably by public hangings, and work towards a democracy where The People of the World can vote on almost any subject, online, and don't have to vote persons into positions where they ignore The People's will.

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

Democracy:

Two wolves and a sheep voting on what's for lunch.

Never works.