Australia is going to buying 9 Virginia Class block 5 SSNs

[Slats]

As I pointed out, it's not about being 20 month delayed. Last time I checked, the US and the UK are not meeting their original schedules when building boats on a quite regular basis. Same will happen with the Australian boats. So switching from an ongoing and delayed contract to a new one that will most def also be delayed won't speed anything up for Australia.

The project is not 20 months delayed - Australia has been complaining about the contract openly in the press for at least 20 months with the press reporting key milestones - not to deliver subs (impossible in that time) - but to deliver reassurances and remedies to the problems. Australia has been completely open in the media and France that if we weren't satisfied we would start looking for an alternative.

The critical issue here is the lack of transparency. If Australia was so unhappy, they should have stated that they will start looking for other options, or better cancel the contract and look for something new. That would have given France time to react, to step up or, to have a better position to accept being kicked out.

What happened is that Australia started negotiating with US and UK while telling France that they stick to the contract. Only when the new agreement was reached, the news was broken to France. That's how you burn bridges.

Again re-read the comment above - and also consider the biggest complaint Australia had with the French was lack of transparency.

Consider this scenario: Your girlfriend is unhappy in your relationship and doesn't tell you. She does not end the relationship but starts to look for other options. Only when she found the new guy and is sure that it will work out, she tells you and kicks you out. What would you say: "Oh, she was unhappy, she is perfectly right to look for better options behind my back while not telling me?" I guess not. You'd feel deceived. You's say that shes not trustworthy. You would never want to talk to her again.

That's what's happening here. Lack of transparency, feelings of betrayal.

As I said: The US is not a trustworthy partner. The UK under Johnson are behaving like expected...

Cheers Andreas

Consider this - Your girlfriend is unhappy in your relationship and does tell you. You're arrogant SOB so you don't care. She does not end the relationship but starts to look for other options / perhaps safer options as you don't take her seriously. When she has the courage to move on you go to the pub and bemoan about it to your EU mates.

Australian's aren't peons whose taxes are to be sacrificed to French workers. French hubris killed the deal.
Time as we say here in Australia for France "to harden up".

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

Wish I could argue with you, sir. Yes, indeed, my country is now untrustworthy. We'll even abandon our own in a God forsaken sand-box.

TERM LIMITS. NOW!

David

[DrSchmidt]

As I pointed out, it's not about being 20 month delayed. Last time I checked, the US and the UK are not meeting their original schedules when building boats on a quite regular basis. Same will happen with the Australian boats. So switching from an ongoing and delayed contract to a new one that will most def also be delayed won't speed anything up for Australia.

The critical issue here is lack of transparency. If Australia was so unhappy, they should have stated that they will start looking for other options, or better cancel the contract and look for something new. That would have given France time to react, to step up or, to have a better position to accept being kicked out.

What happened is that Australia started negotiating with US and UK while telling France that they stick to the contract. Only when the new agreement was reached, the news was broken to France. That's how you burn bridges.

Consider this scenario: Your girlfriend is unhappy in your relationship and doesn't tell you. She does not end the relationship but starts to look for other options. Only when she found the new guy and is sure that it will work out, she tells you and kicks you out. What would you say: "Oh, she was unhappy, she is perfectly right to look for better options behind my back while not telling me?" I guess not. You'd feel deceived. You's say that shes not trustworthy. You would never want to talk to her again.

That's what's happening here. Lack of transparency, feelings of betrayal.

As I said: The US is not a trustworthy partner. The UK under Johnson are behaving like expected...

Cheers Andreas

[Slats]

Let's not forget that France was raping Australia for billions and had not progressed at all, missed a bunch of deadlines, etc. There are some good videos out there wherein the current Prime Minister, Mr. Morrison, vents mightily about the situation.

Nailed it!

Folks, France has known for 20 months we (Australia) were not happy with the deal and they were continually put on notice we were weighing up other options that would culminate in us either sticking with them or pulling out and that deadline was Mid September (now). I'm on ground zero here in Adelaide South Australia where the French "Naval Group" HQ is - and I can tell you the only shock for Aussies was the nuclear option winning the plan B alternatives. The public outcry on how bad the economic deal was with the French on their sub deal (and let's face it the average jo in street doesn't understand defence but they do understand govt waste), has been continuous in the media here.

Ok and now the French are upset - and they will scream particularly loud as their President faces re-election in April 2022 and doesn't want to come off stupid. The bottom line is French hubris killed this deal. The fact that it's all a big surprise to the French that we canceled just shows the extent of how much we Aussies were not taken seriously. The French ought to remember there are 46,000 + Australians buried in France who were killed in the liberation of their country, some 18,000 have no known grave, and there is no Frenchman buried here for the same circumstances. The French media on the back of Brexit are out for a bit of bloodletting, they should suck it up - realize that Australians watch where the tax dollars go and that we were not impressed.

We are going to get great subs, and we know as a nation we face a difficult logistic journey to make this deal work.

[CC Clarke]

Our security interests in Afghanistan were met when OBL was dispatched ten years ago. The predictable nation-building outcome being an utter failure - you can't change a tribal culture no matter how much money you throw at a problem.

The biggest beneficiaries of the last 20 years of waste in blood and treasure were the women. If the Taliban (who we routed in what? -less than a month with minimal boots on the ground) could re-take the country as fast as they did, there's all the proof we need.

The security arrangement with the Afghan Army was a complete joke; it was a lousy welfare program for an army made up of mostly illiterate troops "lead" by corrupt officers who cooked the books for imaginary troops and pocketed their pay. The regular army (kept by pay and not devotion to a US-backed government) had a 30% yearly desertion rate! The whole episode passed the stupid test with flying colors.

All we needed to do was smoke lots of bad guys, remove the cancer that was OBL, and leave with a reminder we would be back if we caught them supported terrorists who threaten our interests again. The whole mission was poorly thought-out, with an inevitable outcome. Bush said early on, this fight would last decades (and he is right). People can blame Biden, or Trump, but the idea of continuing a bad idea indefinitely boggles the mind.

When we ducked out of Bagram in the middle of the night, that spoke volumes. Our military leadership knew what was going to happen. Were the right leaders honest in their assessments? Nope! Let's surge! Buy them more weapons - they couldn't maintain anything more than a rifle for any length of time. US contractors did the intellectual heavy lifting.

The end result is we look like idiots - and we are for blowing trillions of dollars with what to show for it? There was never a realistic plan. The contractors got rich, the troops did the best they could

Politically, we're screwed right now, and it's been getting worse for a long time. We have some awesome CEO's who could really lead this country, but why would they want to? So we get what we get and everyone whines about it.

A nice political reset in this country would be :

1. Remove lobbying. It's basically legal bribery.
2. Mandatory Term Limits. You get four years to serve (not line your pockets!) Then you wait four years and can run again. No more politicians who serve decades and put their own self-interests ahead of their constituents.
3. You show how much money you have going into office and how much when you leave. The numbers better not be much higher. Political office, --like the military, is to serve the country. Politics should never be considered a career choice, just a chance to serve.
4. I worked for the government. The elected officials are merely migrant fruit-pickers. Political appointees rarely have the quals to do the job, which is why once they leave they're quickly replaced and the process continues, with the career government workers sighing and hoping the next "leader" doesn't rock the boat too much.
5. Re-frame the "Great Power Competition" for what it really is: Nations of free men protecting their self-interests against nations of people who governed by dictators, pure and simple. Russia is cozy with every despotic, pariah country there is. That speaks volumes. Play it up and shine a light on those would oppress the rest of us.

The Aussies need submarines. The French were screwing them behind the scenes trying to make more money. We'll screw 'em openly, with cost overruns and contract modifications. Bid low, deliver high.

One issue I predict, (and I hope I'm wrong) is the Chinese will move on Taiwan sooner, rather than later as they see more and more countries arming up and threatening "their area of the world". It's free China against them and they won't last too long. We'll get a bloody nose by losing a few ships, but sinking a lot more with our submarine force, and they'll hate us openly. The only way to hold ground is with troops, and we sure won't ever deploy troops against such a large army (like what happened in the Korean War) again.

[rwtdiver]

I'm ashamed to say that Dr. Schmidt's analysis of the situation is correct. American foreign policy has floundered tragically of late -- most in keeping with our turn toward socialism. My country has lost the will and ability to lead, morally and militarily. We are now a self-hating, corrupt, in-fighting community of selfish isolationists. I'm so glad my parents did not live to see this. I never thought we would abandon American's and our allies like we are doing now.

We get the government we deserve. Sad. But true. God damn our Politician's!

David

I agree 100% with what David has said! We are not only abandoning our allies, we are showing our cracks and opening our doors for bigger conflicts to come with adversaries China & Russia! The politicians are bringing our country to it's knees! My parents would be devastated at what is happening! This country is in a world of crap right now, and unless we find away to get it together again it's only going to get worse!!!

Rob
"Firemen can stand the heat"

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

An the US and the UK are always on schedule with their sub buiolds ;-)

Touché, sir.

[DrSchmidt]

And the US and the UK are always on schedule with their sub builds ;-)

[wlambing]

Let's not forget that France was raping Australia for billions and had not progressed at all, missed a bunch of deadlines, etc. There are some good videos out there wherein the current Prime Minister, Mr. Morrison, vents mightily about the situation.

[DrSchmidt]

I have to mildly disagree with David in some points. Firstly: The US has not turned towards socialism. Compared to what in Europe would account for social democrats (I would call myself a social democrat who votes for the green party), the US democrats are ultra conservative. And: The change didn't start with Biden (look at what Trump did), but the decay in US politics started with more and more lobby money directed towards Washington since the 1970's. Combined with a electoral system that only allows for two parties and there is no real diversity, and the money corrupted both parties, the democrats and the conservatives to an ever increasing extent. It's all become about rich elites protecting their stakes in the US and that in fact is the origin to the self-hating, corrupt, in-fighting community of selfish isolationists you observe. To be social means to form communities, to see that everyone is better of of by helping each other, that the resulting society is a better one than a society in which everyone is fighting for his/her own good. To be social means to collaborate and collaboration is the nothing that the US is pushing forward the last decades. It's all about short term interest and deals. Which is sad.

[He Who Shall Not Be Named]

The problem here is, that even two weeks ago Australia and France seemed to stand behind the deal and did so publicly. At that time, the negotiations for the nuclear sub deal must have gone on for months. So I see it indeed critical that France, an ally and NATO partner, has been deceived by the US, UK, and Australia. For me its quite clear that , together with the Afghanistan disaster, the US is not a trustworthy partner anymore. And with Boris Johnson, the UK will never be a trustworthy partner....

I'm ashamed to say that Dr. Schmidt's analysis of the situation is correct. American foreign policy has floundered tragically of late -- most in keeping with our turn toward socialism. My country has lost the will and ability to lead, morally and militarily. We are now a self-hating, corrupt, in-fighting community of selfish isolationists. I'm so glad my parents did not live to see this. I never thought we would abandon American's and our allies like we are doing now.

We get the government we deserve. Sad. But true. God damn our Politician's!

David

[DrSchmidt]

The problem here is, that even two weeks ago Australia and France seemed to stand behind the deal and did so publicly. At that time, the negotiations for the nuclear sub deal must have gone on for months. So I see it indeed critical that France, an ally and NATO partner, has been deceived by the US, UK, and Australia. For me its quite clear that , together with the Afghanistan disaster, the US is not a trustworthy partner anymore. And with Boris Johnson, the UK will never be a trustworthy partner....

[Slats]

It's not the question of what we (I'm a frog ;) ) can / want to share or not.
I wondered (briefly) why we couldn't have sold our nuclear version of "Barracuda" ourselves.
The answer is simple: we do not have the right to export nuclear boilers, since Alstom belongs to General Electric. USA forbid us.
Business is business...

There was a lot more to it than the nuclear option or not with the French deal. The deal has been sour since it started. KPIs were not met, or adhered to, and the French 'Naval Group' were given multiple deadlines that slipped to outline exactly what was going to be built here in Adelaide and what was to be assembled in France.

The French politicians can cry all they like - and they will in order to save face at home they will obviously shift the blame to Australia. The fact remains Naval Group were put on notice, warned etc for almost 20 months. The fact that Australia openly stated in the press 18 months ago that they were actively looking at multiple alternative plan B's if the French couldn't deliver on key milestones, is no surprise here in Australia that we now have this new deal. If it is a surprise to the ordinary French citizen, that this new deal is being explained as Australia has now unexpectantly and nefariously acted - I guess that's politics in France, but I would also guess it in part is the hubris of Naval Group.

[Slats]

John,
There are only two builders; EB and Huntington Ingalls Newport News (Ingalls bought NN some time ago). As an aside, wasn't there a HUGE problem getting crews for the Collins class? I wonder how their going to man up 9 VAs?? Also, I hope you guys didn't throw away all of your Imperial wrenches (spanners), 'cos these babies aren't built Metric!!

Bill

having spent time a short time visiting aboard HMAS Rankin - I can attest to truly horrendous cramped conditions. Impeccably clean and great grub, nonetheless I don't know how the crews do it long term. The habitability has been a BIG issue for Collins retention. One would hope that a big nuke would offer a bit more space / more pleasant habitability, but they are going to need a big recruitment drive and appropriate pay too.

[Akula54]

The French were not interested in sharing anything. Go back and read the hundreds of press pieces that led us to rip up the contract.

It's not the question of what we (I'm a frog ;) ) can / want to share or not.
I wondered (briefly) why we couldn't have sold our nuclear version of "Barracuda" ourselves.
The answer is simple: we do not have the right to export nuclear boilers, since Alstom belongs to General Electric. USA forbid us.
Business is business...